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INSIDER INFO -- SEPTEMBER 2008
Up for grabs
State Senate highlights
Tale of two cities
No bonus points
Not a dogfight
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Up for grabs
Pennsylvania should lean Democratic but the GOP believes it can carry the Keystone State this time
For the first time since 1988 when Michael Dukakis was the Democratic candidate, top statewide Republican strategists not only hope to win Pennsylvania in the fall, but expect to do so.
Part of their optimism in a state no Republican presidential candidate has won since 1988 comes from a continuing river of Democratic gaffes.
The most famous of course, is Democratic nominee Barack Obama, a U.S. senator from Illinois, telling a San Francisco fund-raiser crowd back when he was fighting the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, that he was trailing by double digits because working class Pennsylvanians are “bitter” and “clinging to guns and religion.”
Republican rally crowds and even many working class independent voters resent that Obama said that, believe he meant it, and the fact that he said it to rich San Franciscans behind closed doors lets Republican nominee John McCain and his running mate, Sarah Palin use it as evidence not just of snobbery, but of hypocrisy as well.
Except that 1) Obama is on record, repeatedly, as saying he is for developing and expanding clean coal, saying so in his convention speech, among other places, and 2) Obama is trailing McCain in coal districts in Ohio, West Virginia and Pennsylvania, states he has to win to claim the presidency.
Sure, Biden grew up in Scranton (until he was 10) but being against coal in Scranton is like wearing a Cowboys shirt in the Eagles stadium in South Philadelphia on a Sunday afternoon: you can do it, if you don’t mind being hated, sworn at and assaulted.
Here is what he said at a rope line at an Ohio event: “No coal plants here in America," he said. "Build them, if they're going to build them, over there” in China. “Make them clean. We’re not supporting clean coal,” Biden said. That is true of himself, but not of Obama, but Republicans are already playing it as “Bitter II” more evidence that Obama is telling Pennsylvania voters one thing and doing another.
Last year, Biden said: “I don't think there's much of a role for clean coal in energy independence, but I do think there's a significant role for clean coal in the bigger picture of climate change,” in an interview with the website Grist. “Clean-coal technology is not the route to go in the United States, because we have other, cleaner alternatives,” but it could help in China and other places that burn tremendous amounts of coal.
Other lesser mistakes are also adding up, like Obama’s saying McCain’s economic plan is not credible and of McCain and Palin on economics, “You can’t put lipstick on a pig,” which many took as a sexist smack at Palin, even though it was a clear, although stupidly-worded, swipe at their policies, not the appearance of the ticket.
If these keep mounting up, a small number of white, working-class, middle class Democrats and independents (some used to be Republicans, but the registration surge of 2008 largely moved all of them into the D column by now) who voted for Ed Rendell for governor, twice, Bill Clinton for president twice, Bob Casey for Senate, treasurer and auditor general and John Kerry and Al Gore for president, may stay home.
The Obama campaign understands that and is trying to change the playing field by adding new registrants. When Ed Rendell ran for governor, registered Democrats led registered Republicans by about 400,000. Post-Obama-Hilary Clinton rivalry, there are now more than 1 million more Democrats registered to vote in this state than Republicans.
And the trend didn’t stop with the primary. In Dauphin County, for example, after the primary and before Sept. 1, Democrats added 2700 new net voters to their rolls. Republicans added just 10. Ten new registered voters used to be a good total for a good committeeperson to garner on a single Saturday. Now it represents four months of work by the county GOP.
Obama still needs to make those folks turn out to vote, and make history by being the first candidate to make under-45 crowd stay within say 5-10 percentage points in showing up at the polls as their elders, cutting the usual gap by half or more.
And Palin is popular. In Northeast Philadelphia, the local McCain HQ reports voters calling in and asking for “a campaign sign with the girl on it. I only want the one with the girl!”
And her popularity is even higher in southwest Pennsylvania and northeast Pennsylvania, where she is helping GOP congressional candidates who were running separate campaigns from McCain, and now are begging for all the Palin the campaign will send them.
But like most things politically in this state, Palin is a two-edged sword. She is hurting the ticket in southeast Pennsylvania where her pro-creationist, anti-abortion views are redefining McCain as a Bush conservative, a moniker he is desperate to avoid in the 5-county Philadelphia region.
Democratic TV ad guru Neil Oxman says that region, which makes up 45 percent of the vote, used to historically under-perform in presidential elections. This time, though, he expects voters there to give Obama a bigger southeast margin than the nearly 500,000-vote lead Kerry took out of the southeast four years ago.
And while GOP strategists believe they can cut the previous Philadelphia margins – 370,000 for Gore, 412,000 for Kerry – to 350,000 or under, the Obama voter turnout machine is critical to countering that argument.
It is easy to see how 15 mostly white city wards that have been remarkably hostile to black candidates in the past (in 2003, Mayor John Street averaged 20 percent in those wards, to Kerry’s 68 percent) could cut up to 60,000 votes from Kerry’s margin.
“But Obama will get that many more votes, and more, from increased turnout in the parts of the city which support him,” said Oxman, referring to several African-American and liberal wards in the city. “And he will get a bigger margin from the four counties around the city” referring to Delaware, Chester, Bucks and Montgomery.
So while McCain appears to be winning the water cooler debate and air war, the Obama camp is confident of their ground assault and artillery in place for Nov. 4.
And as long as their candidates stop making the hill steeper for those door-knockers and phone-bankers, this race will remain close, and remain leaning Obama, especially with the current fiscal economy crisis gripping the nation.
There are seven state Senate races to watch this fall, but only two of them qualify as marquee races where the result is in some doubt.
The top races for the state Senate are both out west, in the Beaver County seat vacated by Sen. Gerald LaValle, D-Beaver, and in the Westmoreland County district vacated by Sen. Bob Regola, R-Westmoreland.
The rest of the races are more being watched to see how close some good candidates can make it in some uphill contests and to monitor future trends in various regions, and see how some promising new candidates do against some proven, veteran political workhorses.
But Regola was a victim of a UFO – an Unforeseen Occurrence. Tragedy struck when a neighboring boy house-sitting for the Regolas killed himself with a gun which the boy’s family and police said was unsafely stored in Regola’s house. Regola was acquitted in court, but more than a year of being accused of at best, carelessness in the death of a teenager, poisoned Regola’s reputation in the district.
This will be a simple old-fashioned race. Bompiani voted to raise school district taxes 8 times, Republicans will say, while Ward stayed true to the anti-tax traditions of Hempfield, a township of about 50,000 people. How anti-tax is it? Hempfield is the largest municipality in the state that does not provide its own municipal police force, which is as anti-tax as you can get.
Bompiani will hit back that the fairly hard-edged Ward is just Santorum in a skirt. And while Regola and President Bush won this district, as did Mike Fisher when running for governor in 2002, Santorum lost this district in 2006.
“He (Santorum) got clobbered on personal stuff, like the residency question and making a local district pay for cyber schools for his children,” said one conservative reform Republican strategist. “So they are going to say she was a buddy of Rick’s, which is true, and a big-time ally of Rick’s, because that is their way of saying she is a bad person and hypocrite, like Rick. People out there will vote for a conservative, but they won’t vote for a jerk, so that is what the Bompiani people will be doing: trying to make voters see Kim not as a conservative, but as a meanie.”
Both sides expect this to be a close race, with Ward having a slight edge in one of the state’s most conservative districts that was recently represented by a Democrat.
But to get Petrella nominated, the Vogel campaign is alleging that “Harrisburg insiders close to Veon” pulled the nomination from Spanik. And this is a district where Harrisburg insiders ignoring the locals is sort of a sore point, at the moment. On the other hand, as Jim Marshall showed in 2006, when he defeated Veon spending almost no money, the power of being an outsider is a big deal currently in Beaver County.
So at the end, these seats probably stay in the party they are, but few would be surprised to see either party win either or both of these seats. They are that close, at least now.
Rogers has been trying to make an issue of Leach allegedly campaigning in his state-paid car, and Leach’s ties to House Democratic leaders tied to the Bonusgate House Democratic corruption charges against two members and 10 aides. But so far those efforts are not moving the dial, Senate Democratic polls show.
One Democrat close to Leach said: “Daylin is just Teflon. People like him and this is a well-off district, the richest in the state, per resident, and all that Harrisburg corruption stuff, people ignore it here.”
Rogers could make this race close, but few believe he can win it.
To make up for his lack of fund-raising, the Kantrowitz has been posting its campaign ads, including some untraditional ones, on “You Tube,” the popular video website. They call this “viral” advertising and it is supposed to work in proportion to the cleverness of the message and its appeal as entertainment to voters.
But so far, the money and the polls in this race indicate Dinniman will win another term in a Senate seat that had not elected a pre-Dinniman Democrat since the Civil War began.
Republicans say Piccola’s popularity in the district will withstand a remarkable trend in the district which keeps seeing more and more Democratic registration and more of those voters actually voting Democratic. This is one district where Hirsh, while a good candidate who disagrees with Piccola on abortion, education funding (she was one of the attorneys who sued the state to make it pony up more basic education funding years ago) and many other issues, may need Obama to win it for her.
If Obama pulls enough young Democrats and black Democrats to the polls in traditionally under-voting Harrisburg, Steelton and Susquehanna Twp., she could surprise. But even so, Piccola’s popularity will likely give him another term, since he is hard-working and well-liked in the black and Latino communities, due to 30 years of nearly Specter-like personal appearances around the district.
The real hope here is that O’Pake retires after this term and Fuhs starts off the 2012 race with $250,000 of name recognition and popularity. So Fuhs, like Hirsh and Rogers are names to watch. All three may not win, but are impressing insiders and could turn up running for these offices again, or in other districts. Tale of two cities Gov Rendell and Philadelphians still rely on indicted Vince Fumo while former House leader Mike Veon is a political leper in Beaver County
After the judge hearing his trial postponed that proceeding for a month due to illness, Sen. Vince Fumo, D-Philadelphia, was back in Harrisburg this week, debating on the Senate floor and working with his hard-working and loyal staff.
Gov. Ed Rendell appeared with Fumo when the senator bowed out of his primary race this spring, to say he had begged Fumo to not immediately resign and to serve out his term to help him pass the budget in June.
Then Fumo managed to use his clout as the budget agreement took shape to get not only Rendell but long-time rival House Appropriations Chairman Dwight Evans, D-Philadelphia, to back him in getting the Philadelphia casinos to relocate from the river sites areas his South Philadelphia constituents opposed.
And he managed to weigh in quietly but still publicly enough to help his chosen candidate, lawyer Lawrence Farnese, succeed him, defeating his major Democratic enemy, John Dougherty, head of the Philadelphia electricians’ union.
And this all while facing public corruption charges.
Which makes what has happened to Fumo’s counterpart in Beaver County and with House Democrats all the more remarkable.
Just as Fumo is the leading dealmaker of Senate Democrats sometimes the Senate in general, former House Minority Whip Mike Veon, D-Beaver, had the same rep as the “Go to Guy” among House Democrats.
Veon was essentially a poor man’s Fumo: a dealmaker but not as productive a one as Fumo; a mentor over the years to hundreds of young Democratic aides and lawmakers, like Fumo.
As one lobbyist said: “When you needed the House Democrats on your side, your first stop was Mike’s office.”
And when Gov. Ed Rendell needed help in 2002 out west, he listened long and hard to Veon’s recommendations for western steps and campaign tips. And when Rendell wanted a loyal state party committee chairman, he seconded Veon’s choice, T.J. Rooney, then a Lehigh Valley state representative.
Veon was powerful and popular and influential, like Fumo, but in each attribute, less so than Fumo.
Then Veon’s Beaver County constituents turned on him, electing non-entity Jim Marshall in 2006, because, as one Democratic voter summed it up: “He is not Mike and didn’t do what Mike did: vote for pay raises and stuff for himself, not us.”
Except that Veon and Beaver County House Democrat Sean Ramaley are now both charged with official corruption, and polls show that an entire generation of Beaver County politicians, all of them mentored by or allied with Veon, are now tainted by Veon. Even the most optimistic House Democrats say they can’t win Marshall’s seat back this term.
When Ramaley had to back out of his nomination to run for the state Senate because of his indictment, local party officials turned to Beaver County Commissioner Joe Spanik.
But in a rare move, the state Democratic Party, which had final control and usually rubber-stamps local choices, rejected Spanik in favor of local businessman Jason Petrella who had been nominated by Lawrence County Democrats (less than one-third of the district). State committee led by Rooney voted for Petrella because polls showed between tax-hike votes and Veon, Spanik would lose.
“Mike is just toxic out there now,” said one former Veon protégé still involved in House Democratic election efforts.
Capitolwire called it an east-west thing, but it is notable that Veon has become a non-entity for being charged with essentially the same offenses as Fumo but that has not kept the powerful Philadelphian from continuing to wield major policy and political power in his end of Pennsylvania.
No bonus points AG Tom Corbett announces that there will be no more indictments in Bonusgate until after Nov. 4 , raising protest from editorialists
A few weeks ago, Attorney General Tom Corbett hinted that additional charges could be filed in the Bonusgate probe before the end of September, but declared October off limits.
He said the self-imposed freeze on filing charges between Oct. 1 and the Nov. 4 election was modeled on a policy in place when he was a U.S. Attorney for Western Pennsylvania in the early 1990s.
Those statements to The Associated Press in a Sept. 9 interview fueled speculation that charges would be handed down soon, and elicited criticism from editorial boards and political opponents over Corbett’s decision to hold off on filing new charges in October.
On Monday, the Republican attorney general dispelled rumors of a late September rash of criminal charges, and declared the debate over his October moratorium to be “academic.”
The reason? Corbett said the grand jury reviewing the matter would sit for only one more week before the Nov. 4 election, and that just wasn’t enough time to wrap up the next phase of the investigation. Even if he was willing to file charges in October.
In July, Corbett charged former House Democratic Whip Mike Veon, Rep. Sean Ramaley, D-Beaver, and 10 past and then current (since suspended) House Democratic staffers for allegedly misusing taxpayer funds and state time for campaign work. The charges grew out of an investigation into allegations that taxpayer-funded bonuses were doled out to caucus employees for campaign work.
Some Democrats have been critical of Corbett’s handling of the Bonusgate probe – most notably, his fall opponent, Democratic Northampton County District Attorney John Morganelli.
Morganelli said last month that “a lot of wrongdoers” will go unpunished because Corbett’s investigation was “botched from the beginning” by the apparent focus only on the House Democratic Caucus. Critics say it wasn’t until months after he seized documents from Democratic offices and began subpoenaing Democratic staffers that Corbett turned his attention to legislative Republicans.
Responding to that charge, Corbett said Monday: “I would assume my opponent understands that in order to execute search warrants and to obtain search warrants, you have to have probable cause.”
Corbett was peppered with questions from reporters after the press club luncheon about the fairness of charging 12 House Democratic insiders months before the election while deferring any further action until after Nov. 4.
He dodged the questions, saying he couldn’t comment on the specifics of the probe other than to say that it has built on itself and led his agents to new discoveries, and that he couldn’t detail the twists and turns of that winding path until after the investigation is completed.
“I would love to be able to tell you everything right now, but I can’t,” Corbett said.
Corbett did defend the timing of charges, during a Q&A at the press club luncheon, as the moderator asked him whether it was fair to voters to withhold charges against public officials they might be voting for.
“The question, more importantly, is, is it fair to the outcome of the total investigation to bring charges early on when we don’t have the complete story?” Corbett responded. “Is it fair to not only those who may be charged but to those who may not be charged until we have the full story? Is it fair to the attorneys and investigators working on this case?”
Corbett called the election an “artificial deadline that many people have created here,” and said the investigation is “clearly the most serious investigation I or any of my attorneys, as far as I know, have ever participated in, and we are going to do it the right way.”
Corbett kept mum on what would happen after the election. He also said he fully expected to be criticized for his decision. He didn’t have to wait long. His hometown newspaper, The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, did just that in an editorial Sept. 24 headlined, “No bonus here: With Corbett, the prosecution goes silent.”
“All I can worry about is that our office does the job the right way, that we get all the facts, that we get the law, that we present it to the grand jury, get their recommendation and go forward from that,” Corbett said after the luncheon. “That’s all I can worry about. I think the facts will speak for themselves when all is said and done.”
While Corbett’s discussion of the Bonusgate probe was the big news draw on Monday, the attorney general also used his Press Club speech to tout the accomplishments of his nearly four years in office.
He discussed the creation of new units in the office to handle child predator and elder abuse cases and public corruption, and efforts to crack down on gang activity. He also highlighted the accomplishments of his office in consumer protection.
While he didn’t discuss his re-election campaign at length, Corbett did say, in response to a question from the audience, that he planned to begin airing campaign TV commercials in October. However, he will not debate Morganelli until so late in October that only a handful of viewers will see it.
Corbett also took a position markedly at odds with other prosecutors, law enforcement, and victims’ groups on a package of prison reform bills headed to the governor’s desk.
The legislation is intended to move non-violent offenders out of prison more quickly if they complete an education program and steer clear of trouble while behind bars.
Specifically, the early-release program will allow defendants to cut their sentences by 25 percent if they complete a number of steps that experts say will keep them from returning to prison after they’re released.
Corbett said he opposed the bill because “you are giving to the corrections system the ability to let somebody out, to alleviate what they consider to be an overcrowding situation.”
The package’s chief supporter, House Speaker Denny O’Brien, R-Philadelphia, said Corbett “didn’t read the bill.”
O’Brien noted that defendants would have to opt into that program at the time of sentencing, with the approval of the prosecutor and judge, and that the state Parole Board would have the final say on the early release.
“We are the first state that is doing this in a comprehensive way. It’s revolutionary,” O’Brien said.
But Corbett said: “When the jailer looks in the jail and sees the jail overcrowded and says 'I have to let some people out,' obviously he is going to begin to let people out.
“That concerns me. There is a lack of balance. There's a lack of independence.”
Corbett also questioned whether the bill complied with truth-in-sentencing requirements, meaning defendants must serve at least the minimum sentence they receive. O’Brien said the bill did comply with those requirements because the defendant would have to be approved for the early-release program at the time of sentencing, and the early release date would be set at that time.
But Corbett said: “If someone is not going to be serving the full minimum of their term, and that is at the discretion of the corrections system, no one can say, in my opinion, that we are a truth-in-sentencing state. And how do we go and tell the victims of certain crimes that the individual who was sentenced – let's pick a five-year sentence – 'Well, it's five years, maybe'?
“I just have a difference of opinion with many people, and I've certainly been overruled, and we have to live with that. But I'll tell you this, I am going to take a look at the crime rate when that goes into effect and see what it looks like five years from now.”
O'Brien said Corbett and others should actually watch the recidivism and recommitment rates, which he said will decline once offenders start passing through this program. That, in turn, will drive crime rates down, the speaker said.
Supporters say that a similar program in New York has helped stem that state's prison population growth. Pennsylvania has seen its prison population quadruple in the last 25 years to 46,800, and statistics show that number if growing by 1,700 a year.
Not a dogfight Incumbent Democrat Jack Wagner has a clear advantage over Republican underdog in continuing as fiscal watchdog
When political insiders gathered in New York last December for a Pennsylvania Society weekend reception honoring Auditor General Jack Wagner, the talk focused more on Wagner’s potential 2010 run for governor than on his re-election to his current post.
Wagner was the only one not all that interested in talking about the governor’s race. He said at the time that he was focused on his re-election to auditor general.
Wagner, a Democrat, is counting on his popularity and those high-profile audits to convince enough voters on Nov. 4 that he deserves another four years in office.
“When (voters) look at the performance, they will grade us very favorably,” Wagner told The Associated Press recently.
Lancaster County businessman Chet Beiler, Wagner’s fall GOP opponent, is making the case that change is needed in the auditor general’s office.
Beiler, who built a multimillion-dollar gazebo company from the ground up, says that his executive experience is what voters are looking for in an auditor general.
“Every day, I have people telling me that they would like to see more business sense applied to how the government is run,” Beiler told the AP.
Both Wagner and Beiler are running to be the state’s top fiscal watchdog in a year where statewide and regional races are getting overshadowed by the presidential election, especially with both major party candidates working hard to win Pennsylvania. Both candidates say it can be frustrating, but they’re working to get their message out.
The under-the-radar nature of the race could help Wagner, the incumbent and a popular Democrat with a base in Western Pennsylvania. Political analysts say he is favored to win, but don’t want to count Beiler out just yet but he is certainly the underdog.
Getting to run against an incumbent, Wagner is Beiler’s consolation prize from the state’s GOP. He wanted to run in 2004 when the office was open with no incumbent but Republican leaders had other plans.
That year, they had three GOP candidates wanting to run for attorney general and the third one, Joe Peters, was persuaded to seek auditor general instead, leaving the field to party-favored Tom Corbett and maverick Bruce Castor, then the district attorney in Montgomery County. Corbett defeated Castor in the primary and went on to win the general election narrowly. Peters lost the general election to Wagner.
In this year’s contest, Wagner enjoys a fundraising advantage. He told the AP he expected to have about $500,000 on hand by the end of September, while Beiler only expected to have around $200,000.
Beiler, meanwhile, is trying to drive a message of reform home, calling Wagner to task for doing too little to push lawmakers toward a change in the law that would open the General Assembly to audits. Under current law, the auditor general cannot audit state House and Senate records.
Wagner said he supports such a change in the law or the constitution, and insists that he has been a voice for reform, including his call to eliminate bonuses for state government employees.
Wagner, 60, has spent nearly 25 years in elective office at the state and local level. He spent 10 years on Pittsburgh City Council, and then another decade in the state Senate, before winning election to the auditor general’s office in 2004.
Wagner served with the U.S. Marine Corps in the Vietnam War between 1966 and 1968, later receiving the Purple Heart for a severe wound he received in combat. After a long rehabilitation at the Philadelphia Naval Hospital, Wagner returned home to Western Pennsylvania and attended the Indiana University of Pennsylvania, earning a degree in safety management in 1974. He worked as a safety consultant before getting into elective politics in 1983.
Wagner lives with his wife, Nancy, and their two children in Pittsburgh.
Beiler, 45, founded Amish Country Gazebos in 1989 and has built the company up since then. He is also a partner in several other businesses.
Beiler has never run for office, but is hardly a neophyte to politics, having served as the Lancaster County Republican Party chairman from 2000 to 2002.
It was in that capacity that he was charged in 2001 with violating state election law for allegedly offering illegal payments to workers for every new GOP voter they registered in the 2000 presidential election. Beiler said he had been given improper legal advice in that situation but he nonetheless performed community service under a program for first-time offenders and had the charges dismissed.
Beiler is a graduate of Pepperdine University in Malibu, Calif., in 1987. He lives with his wife, Sharon, and two daughters outside Manheim, Pa.
A third candidate, Betsy Summers of Wilkes-Barre, is running as a Libertarian for the office.
Summers, 51, is a sales representative for a veterinary supply company. She said her focus would be on closer review of local and county government spending.
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